2016 Pro Football Preview: Athlon Sports
Division Predictions
NFC South
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NFC East
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NFC North
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NFC West
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AFC South
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AFC East
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AFC North
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AFC West
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| 4 | TD passes by Marcus Mariota in his first pro game - a first in history |
| 24 | Years since a QB threw a pick-6 on his first pass as a pro as Jameis Winston did |
| 48y | Length of the PAT kicked by Cleveland's Travis Coons September 13 after two penalties pushed the ball back from the 15 |
0 |
Number of current franchises that have never lost the first three games in any season after the Ravens did so Sept. 27 |
| 160 | Consecutive passes by Ryan Tannehill without an INT, a Dolphins record |
| 2 | Picks off Ryan Tannehill by Buffalo's Preston Brown Sept. 27 within a span of five passes |
| 16 | Consecutive passes completed by Brandon Weeden of the Cowboys to start his season - the most by a QB in 32 years |
| 27 | Streak of TD passes by Alex Smith of Kansas City to non-wide receivers before ending on September 28 |
| 247 | Consecutive NFL games won by teams leading by at least 17 points during the 4th quarter until Seattle blows a 24-7 lead against Cincinnati October 11 |
| 26 | Consecutive drives by the Broncos without scoring a TD, which does not keep them from going 6-0 |
| 2 | TD passes by Kirk Cousins in the last 30 seconds of games within a month, making him the sole active QB to accomplish the feat |
| 25 | Consecutive losses by the Vikings in road games in which they trailed at the half before they come back to beat Detroit October 25 |
| 167/22 | Yards covered on Tannehill's four TD throws October 25 and the yards the ball was airborne on them |
| 4 | Consecutive games Philip Rivers throws for over 300y in a defeat |
| 10 | TD passes by Kirk Cousins through November 8, none of them longer than 7y |
| 20 | Consecutive regular season losses by the Lions at Lambeau Field - an NFL record at any road venue - before beating the Packers November 15 |
| 170y | Total yards in two TD passes by Jay Cutler of the Bears although the ball actually travelled a combined -2y from scrimmage |
| 2 for 666 | Eagles games in which they surrendered five TD passes to an opponent before allowing a quintet of TD passes in each of two consecutive contests |
| 21 | Consecutive third-down failures - over three games - by the Dolphins before finally succeeding Nov. 29 vs Jets |
| 2 | Times in NFL history that a FG is blocked and returned for a game-winning TD to end a game after Travis Coons of Cleveland suffers his first FG miss of the season Nov. 30 |
| 8 | Years since a player recovered his own fumble of a punt before Dallas's Chris Jones does it Dec. 6 |
| 6 | INTs by Cincinnati's Reggie Nelson in seven meetings against Ben Roethlisberger of Pittsburgh |
| 0 | TD's generated by QB Jimmy Clausen against Seattle during two games against them - first as a Bear, then as a Raven |
| 2 | Team-records streaks of consecutive passes without an INT that came to an end Dec. 13 - Alex Smith's 312 for KC and Tyrod Taylor's 222 for Buffalo |
| 1987 | Last time a former Alabama QB started and won an NFL game before AJ McCarron did so for the Bengals Dec. 20 |
| 5 | Consecutive games that the Chiefs allow no Q4 points |
| 24 | Consecutive TDs by San Diego without any of them being on the ground |
| 6 | Offside or neutral-zone penalties by the 49ers in the first half of a loss to the Lions |
| 0 | 3rd-down conversions by the Bengals in their 24-16 victory over the Ravens Jan. 3 |
| 22 | Consecutive road losses by Jacksonville to a team with a winning record |
| 8-of-56 | Handoffs by Tom Brady on offensive snaps in New England's playoff victory over KC Jan. 116 |
| 212 | Fewer times DeMarco Murray touched the ball with the Eagles in '15 compared to his total with the Cowboys in '14. |
| 22 | Number of playoff victories by Tom Brady, an NFL record |
| 8 | New assistant coaches hired by San Diego's Mike McCoy following a 4-12 2015 season. |
| $227.8M | League-leading amount spent by the Jaguars in the off-season. |
| 2007 | Last winning season for Jacksonville |
| 14 | Victories by the Jaguars the last four years |
| 46 | Regular season victories by Seattle's Russell Wilson, the most by any QB in history through his first four seasons. |
| 13 | Seasons since Tampa Bay won a playoff game - Super Bowl XXXVII. |
Opposing Scouts Size Up NFC South Teams
- Falcons
I'm not big on Matt Ryan, who is an overrated and overpaid commodity at QB. He is a streaky pocket passer who can be very productive when in rhythm but struggles to recover when hitting setbacks. ...The line and LBs were the weakness of this defense last year. - Panthers
The Panthers are poised to make another deep run into the playoffs thanks to Cam Newton and the defense. ... Newton ... is the consummate dual threat at QB. Though he is one of the NFL's least-accurate starters with his sub-60% completion percentage, Newton has elite ability to make plays on the move and is indefensible near the goal line. - Saints
Look for this team to be in a lot of shootouts in 2016. If the Saints can improve even slightly on defense, they will be in the playoff hunt. ... Cameron Jordan is a difference-making E who is effective versus both the run and pass. However, the Saints lack a bookend to provide much pass rush or run-stuffing opposite him. ... they will need new MLB James Laurinaitis to return to form after a disappointing 2015 season with the Rams. ... Delvin Breaux and Keenan Lewis are big press CBs but might not be great fits for Dennis Allen's blitz-happy scheme because they lack the requisite quickness and agility to match up on an island ... While there may be a slight decline in his play, Drew Brees is still a top-five QB, and New Orleans will be competitive as long as he is at the helm. ... They have a solid C in Max Unger but need improvement at the G spots ... Mark Ingram leads a pedestrian stable of RBs. ... New TE Coby Fleener should provide pass-catching production, though he is a little soft as a blocker. - Buccaneers
This team is poised to make another run at .500 - and maybe even finish a game or two better than that ... Much of Tampa Bay's success will depend on Jameis Winston continuing to develop in his second NFL season. ... his average mobility and immaturity issues could be hindrances ... While questions remain about his consistency and durability, Doug Martin is a hard runner who fights for extra yards and runs with good base and balance.
Saints in the Individual Player Rankings
- QB Drew Brees #5 (#18 overall)
- RB Mark Ingram #28
- FB John Kuhn #5
- WR - none in top 30
- TE Coby Fleenor #13
- C Max Unger #9
- T Terron Armstead #7, Zach Strief #19
- DT - none in top 20
- LB - none
- CB Delvin Breaux #5 (#48 overall)
- S Kenny Vaccaro #25
QUICK QUIZ
All questions refer to NFL "firsts" of the 2015 season.
Which QB threw a TD pass in 54 consecutive home games?
Which QB came up with a four-TD game for a fourth different franchise?
Which team won a game after only 13 seconds of OT?
Which QB compiled a perfect passer rating of 158.3 in his NFL debut?
Which coach elminated from the playoffs the team he coached the previous season in the final game of the year?
2016 Pro Football Preview: Sporting News
Division Predictions
NFC South
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NFC East
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NFC North
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NFC West
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AFC South
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AFC East
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AFC North
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AFC West
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NFC South
- Panthers
The NFC champions did lose a key component in CB Josh Norman, but the real strength of their defense, the front seven, stayed loaded and got deeper. Offensively, Cam Newton will get a huge weapon back in Kelvin Benjamin. That will keep them from having a big drop-off through their Super Bowl hangover.
With Newton just hitting his stride as a QB who sees the entire field and is deadly in or out of the pocket, the Panthers still look like the class of the NFC South. Getting Benjamin back will be big for a receiving corps that struggled with drops last season and couldn't get open consistently against the Broncos' DBs in the Super Bowl. Defensively, LBs Kuechly, Davis, Short and a stacked front seven should be able to compensate for a secondary in transition. It has been 23 years since a losing Super Bowl team made it back the following season. The Panthers have a shot. - Saints
Their offensive rebuild remains in progress as they try to reopen the championship window with Sean Payton and Drew Brees. They keep making the right moves to help make their defense respectable again, but it needs a little more time to get them back in playoff contention.
They can get going fast against the Raiders, Giants, Falcons and Chargers. But beware of the possible 4-0 being a mirage after everything gets ramped up after a Week Five bye. The Panthers sandwich a six-game stretch that includes the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Broncos. Even if New Orleans stays in contention going into December, three of the final four games are on the road. - Falcons
The Falcons are starting to build something good defensively with Dan Quinn, but they are bound to take a step back in wins with a much harder schedule. Their offense will need to somehow get revved up after a cold finish in 2015.
If offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and QB Matt Ryan don't get on the same page, the offense will continue to sputter about and there won't be a playoff revival in the last season of the Georgia Dome. Shanahan must also find some answers in the red zone for his offense, which has finished in the bottom half of the league in red-zone efficiency in six of his eight seasons as a coordinator. Quinn, a pass-rush specialist by trade, and defensive line coach Bryan Cox are on the spot also after finishing last in sacks and failing to draft any pass rushers. - Buccaneers
There are many pieces to like around their young superstars, Jameis Winston and Kwon Alexander. Although Dirk Koetter's offensive leadership is familiar, they still need to get used to a new head coach. They'll flash some more big moments despite taking a small step back in the standings.
After wallowing in the basement of the NFC South for the last five years, the Bucs are poised to start turning things around. The offense has the potential to produce record numbers yet again and the defense should be vastly improved ... The Bucs aren't likely to contend, but they should continue their climb back to respectability and could make a run at .500 if everything breaks well for them.
Excerpts from full write-up on Saints
- In the last four seasons, the Saints have finished 7-9 three times, including in 2012 when head coach Sean Payton was suspended in the aftermath of the "Bountygate" scandal.
- Most coaches would not survive such a stretch, or at least enter 2016 on the hot seat. Payton received a five-year contract extenson in March, a testament to his overall body of work since 2006 and the belief by GM Mickey Loomis that the Saints aren't that far removed from their 11-5 mark of 2013.
- The Saints ... produced the NFL's second-best total last season ... but the defense was historically bad ...
- OFFENSE
Pete Carmichael has one of the best gigs in the NFL - coordinating a perennially explosive offense anchored by an underrated line and the league's most durable and consistent QB ... If the GM is correct in suggesting RB C.J. Spiller's 2015 season was an aberration, Carmichael could have a ground game with Spiller and Mark Ingram that can match his air attack.
QBs
Someday Drew Brees will slow down. But entering his 16th sesason and coming off another big year, Brees looks like the youngest 37-year-old QB in NFL history. ... GRADE: A
RBs
This unit was a worthy complement to the Saints' air assault in 2014, but injuries limited the group to 93.2 ypg last season ... Spiller and Ingram, when healthy, provide the type of contrasting looks Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush once offered ... GRADE: B-
Receivers
Second-round draft pick Michael Thomas ... is seen as the next Colston. With Watson leaving in free agency ..., the Saints signed Coby Fleenor to a five-year deal for a whopping $36M. Fleener put up solid numbers for a Colts team not known for targeting TEs ... GRADE: B
Offensive Line
Terron Armstead was viewed as a project on draft day in 2013 but has become a solid LT. ... Max Unger's play at C ... has been a stabilizing force. GRADE: B - DEFENSE
Unlike Rob Ryan and his complicated 3-4 base scheme, coordinator Dennis Allen runs a more simplified 4-3. .. Allen has the building blocks to improve quickly.
Defensive Line
The Saints signed free-agent Nick Fairley, who they hope will be a disruptive three-technique tackle. ... GRADE: C
LBs
Rookie Stephone Anthony ... led New Orleans with 112 tackles, a rookie team record. ... Hau'oli Kikaha ... had a productive rookie campaign. Kikaha ultimately could shit to DE ... James Laurinaitis, a former Rams captain, brings some much-needed leadership to the defense. GRADE: C+
Secondary
The Saints have made a habit of signing past-their-prime players to shore up the secondary ... P.J. Williams, a third-round pick from Florida State in 2015, is back after missing his rookie season with a hamstring injury. ... Jairus Byrd seems light years removed from his three Pro Bowl years in Buffalo and hasn't come close to living up to the big contract he signed in 2014. ... Kenny Vaccaro ... had a nice bounce-back year in his third NFL season. GRADE: C
Special Teams
The Saints hope a healthy Spiller can become the playmaker Darren Sproles once was ... He could help the Saints, who have ranked near the bottom of the league in kick and punt returns in recent seasons. ... Thomas Morstead ... remains a reliable punter. ... GRADE: C- - BOTTOM LINE
The Saints have been one of t he NFL's most disappointing teams over the last two seasons. Payton didn't so much earn a new contract as he received a "career achievement" extension. Though Brees is the most reliable, stabilizing force in the game, he can't play defense, where the Saints must show improvement if they hope to contend with a dominant Carolina team and the improving Buccaneers. Loomis didn't improve the Saints in the offseason so much as he managed the salary cap. A 7-9 record for the fourth time in five seasons would not be a surprise.
QUICK QUIZ
In what city will Super Bowl LI be held February 5?
Which team led the NFL in rushing last year?
Marcus Mariota threw for 2,818y for Tennessee last year. Who was the last QB to pass for more than 3000y as a rookie for the Titans franchise (formerly the Houston Oilers)?
2016 Pro Football Preview: Lindy's Sports
Division Predictions
NFC South
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NFC East
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NFC North
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NFC West
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AFC South
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AFC East
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AFC North
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AFC West
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| 12 | Years since Oakland had a winning season and made the playoffs |
| $72M | Value of four-year contract Houston gave Brock Osweiler |
| 5 | Games Osweiler has started coming into 2016 |
5 |
Consecutive seasons Cleveland has finished last in the AFC North |
| 24 | Starting QBs for Cleveland since the franchise began in 1999 |
| 5 | Years since the Giants made the playoffs |
| 0-7 | Bengals coach Marvin Lewis's record in the playoffs |
| 1991 | Last year the Bengals won a playoff game. |
| 106.3 | Andy Dalton's passer rating for 2015, a record for the Cincinnati franchise. |
| 9 | Fumbles by Bengals RB Jeremy Hill the last two years, with six of them lost. |
| 21 | Years since Los Angeles last had an NFL team |
| 8, 17 | The Bears' total for INTs and turnovers last year, both record lows for the franchise |
| 92.7 | Aaron Rodgers' QB rating last year, the first time he's been under 100 since his first season as starter (2008) |
| 17 | Wins in two seasons by Teddy Bridgewater with the Vikings, tying Brett Favre and Warren Moon for most wins by a Minnesota QB through two seasons |
| 5th | Rank of the Vikings in scoring defense (18.9 ppg) last year in Mike Zimmer's third seasons as head coach after finishing last his first year (30.0) and 13th in 2014 (20.3). |
| 1 | INTs by S Jairus Byrd in his two seasons with the Saints |
| 0 | Times the Saints have missed the playoffs three straight years under Sean Payton - a record that may be broken if New Orleans fails to qualify again this season |
| 1 | Victories Payton needs to become the winningest coach in Saints history; he is 93-61 and tied with Jim Mora who was 93-76 in 10 1/2 seasons. |
| 459 | Passing yards Drew Brees needs to move past Dan Marino into 3rd place on the NFL's all-time list. |
| 10 | Consecutive seasons the Saints have finished in the top 10 in total offense in the NFL, a feat the club achieved only three times in its first 39 years of existence |
| 6 | Rushing TDs by rookie Jameis Winston for Tampa Bay last year, tying him with Doug Martin for the team lead |
| 13 | Times the Patriots have finished first in the AFC East the last 15 seasons. |
| 10 | Times the Patriots have played in the AFC title game in the past 15 years, winning six. |
| 30th | Patriots' rank in rushing last season (87.8 ypg).5 |
| 5 | Wins by the Ravens last year, their lowest total in eight years. |
| 9 | Coaches in NFL history who won 90 games in their first nine seasons, the latest being Mike Tomlin of the Steelers, whose 92 wins are tied for third-most of all teams over the past nine years. |
| 35 | INTs thrown by Blake Bortles in his first two NFL seasons with the Jaguars. |
| 45 | Times Chiefs QB Alex Smith was sacked in 2015. |
| 4 | Wins by San Diego last year, the Chargers' worst showing since 2003. |
Players and coaches "On the Hot Seat"
- Giants - Steve Spagnuolo
Armed with several new pieces, ... defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should have all the pieces in place to lift the 32nd-ranked defense last season out of the cellar. While injuries did contribute to the defense's problems last year, Spagnuolo's lack of success as a coordinator since his first stint with the Giants in 2007-2008 (including a disastrous year with the Saints) have some wondering if perhaps he is the long-term solution to orchestrate the defense. - Redskins - OL Junior Galette
Galette didn't want a long-term contract. After his falling out in New Orleans, he had to take a "prove-it" deal from the Redskins last summer, but didn't get the chance to show what he could do thanks to an Achilles tendon injury. Galette fired his representative and hired powerhouse agent Drew Rosenhaus. If he has a great year - double-digit sacks - then he will cash in with a massive contract after signing yet another team-friendly one-year deal. If he doesn't? Then he will be two years removed from his last productive year and a 29-year-old free agent with a significant recent injury on his resume. - Falcons - QB Matt Ryan
Ryan is on the hot seat after a woeful showing in 2015. Before last season, the Falcons' struggles were clearly placed on a meek and timid offensive line. Last season, Ryan was at the heart of their woes as he threw interceptions, fumbled the ball and dropped snaps from center. Ryan admitted that it sometimes took too long to process the verbiage in the new offensive scheme. - Seahawks - TE Jimmy Graham
The Seahawks gave up a lot to get Graham before last season: their 2015 first-round pick and C Max Unger. The jury was still out at the end of his first year whether the trade was worth it. Graham had 48 receptions when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 11, and had just two TDs. Seattle coaches defended Graham, noting he was on pace for 70 catches, down from the 85 he averaged with the Saints but something that was to be expected given that he went from one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL to one of the most run-heavy. - Browns - QB Robert Griffin III
The riches to rags story of Griffin might not be over. The 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year, 5-15 the next two years and inactive every game in 2015 with the Redskins, is getting another chance with the Browns. If he doesn't redeem himself this season, though, his football career could flame out before he turns 27 next February.
Saints in the Players and Units Rankings
- QB Drew Brees #5
- WRs - none in the top 56
- TE Coby Fleener #14, Josh Hill #8 among "The Two's"
- RB Mark Ingram #9, C. J. Spiller #10 among "The Two's All-Purpose"
- C Max Unger #6
- G - none in top 20
- LT Terron Armstead #7
- DE Cam Jordan #7 among "4-3 Right Side"
- LB Cannell Ellerbe #9 among "Will"
- CB Delvin Breaux #2 among "The Two's"
- No Saint unit is ranked in the Top Five of its position group in the NFC.
QUICK QUIZ
What was the last team to win back-to-back Super Bowls?
Mike Tomlin is only the third Steelers coach since 1969. Who were the other two?
Listed below are the repeat winners of the NFL's MVP award. Which one of this distinguished group achieved that feat twice?
(A) Jim Brown
(B) Brett Favre
(C) Peyton Manning
(D) Joe Montana
Golden NFL Predictions
What to make of the 2016 Saints?
- Daily personnel changes as late as four days before the first regular season game make it difficult to get a handle on this team.
- My feeling is they'll be mediocre, just like the last two years. The problem is the schedule this season is much tougher because the NFC South plays both Wests - NFC and AFC - as their rotating divisions.
- So the Saints could be a better team than last year but still finish worse than last year's 7-9. And yet that could still be good enough for second in the division, since Atlanta and Tampa Bay Bucs face the same daunting list of opponents as the Saints. The Panthers, universally picked to win the division for the third year in a row, have already lost their opener to Denver of the AFC West.
- If you pin me down, I'll say:
Don't be surprised if the Saints finish no better than 7-9 again in '16.
Other NFL Predictions
Don't be surprised if the following teams do WORSE than the composite rankings (above) have them pegged.
- Cowboys
In the composite rankings above, Dallas is first in the NFC East. But many publications made their picks before Tony Romo was injured in the preseason game. He will be replaced by Dak Prescott of Mississippi State. The NFL tends to eat up rookie QBs.
- Vikings
This is another case of a QB injury in the preseason adversely affecting a team's prognosis.
- Redskins
Washington surprised the NFL with its 9-7 finish in 2015. But the league will adjust and reveal Jay Gruden's team as the pretenders they are.
Don't be surprised if the following teams do BETTER than the composite rankings (above) have them pegged.
- Buccaneers
Assuming Jameis Winston doesn't suffer a sophomore slump, the young but talented Bucs should finish 2nd in the NFC South.
- Giants
With a new coach and the enthusiasm that he will inject into the club, the G-men should win the NFC East.
Finally, don't be surprised if Ryan Griffin III has a solid year with the Browns.
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